Following the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, only 12 drivers remain alive in the NASCAR Cup Series championship hunt.
The second round of the Cup Series playoffs consists of three unique racetracks: the one-mile New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway and the 2.32-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.
The postseason intensity will only ratchet up in the second round, where four more drivers will be eliminated from playoff contention at Charlotte on Oct. 5.
As teams prepare to take on the ‘Magic Mile’ of New Hampshire on Sunday, here’s the current playoff outlook for every Round of 12 driver.
FEELING GOOD
It’s hard to say that there could be any ‘near locks’ for the Round of 8, given the variety of tracks in the Round of 12 and the way the points standings have narrowed. However, there are still a few drivers that stand out above the rest and should have an easier time advancing to the penultimate round of the playoffs.
-Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
As his 45th birthday nears, Hamlin is putting together some of the best races of his career. It’d be shocking if the five-time 2025 winner didn’t advance to the Round of 8, especially considering that he’ll be among the favorites to win at both New Hampshire and Kansas.
The Roval could bring him some trouble if he finds himself close to the cut line, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Hamlin isn’t at least comfortable on points going into Charlotte.
-Kyle Larson, No. 5 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
Larson’s Round of 12 outlook is similar to Hamlin’s. There are two tracks — Kansas and the Charlotte Roval — where the 2021 champion will be among the favorites to win. That’s especially true given that Larson is the defending Charlotte Roval winner and dominated the May 11 race at Kansas Speedway.
Unlike Hamlin, however, the remaining race — in this case, New Hampshire — isn’t as big a weak spot for Larson as the Roval is for Hamlin. Larson has finished top-five in the last two New Hampshire races, and a similar result on Sunday would leave Larson sitting pretty ahead of Kansas.
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
These drivers won’t waltz through the Round of 12 effortlessly, but it’d be surprising to see them eliminated.
-William Byron, No. 24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
Byron’s inclusion in this category comes with a caveat — the No. 24 team must wake up and find the speed that took them to the Championship 4 in 2023 and 2024. Byron didn’t finish inside the top 10 once in the Round of 16. The two-time Daytona 500 winner is certainly capable of winning a Round of 12 race or easily advancing on points, and most HMS fans would argue that doing so is the bare minimum expectation.
Byron has earned a reputation as a championship-caliber driver over the past three seasons, but he can’t afford to rest on his laurels over the next three weeks.
-Christopher Bell, No. 20 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
Bell’s insertion into this list is mainly due to the fact that New Hampshire Motor Speedway opens the Round of 12. Bell has made NHMS his playground in recent years, winning two of the last three Cup Series races at the track. Even if he can’t win on Sunday, he has enough of a points gap (plus-20) to the cut line that top-10 runs at Kansas and the Roval would likely be enough to get Bell to the Round of 8.
-Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford, Team Penske
Blaney is looking to get to the Championship 4 for the third consecutive year. He enters the Round of 12 with a 19-point advantage over the cut line and on the heels of consecutive top-five finishes.
Blaney has only one win at tracks in the Round of 12, and it was a chaotic victory at the Roval in 2018, which was the result of a last-lap tangle between Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson. However, it’d still be shocking if Blaney isn’t able to point his way into the Round of 8 in search of his second title in three years.
DANGER ZONE
These drivers are currently close to the cut line and will have to scratch and claw in order to make the Round of 8.
-Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
Briscoe has been red-hot over the last three months of the season, but he’s only 10 points above the cut line going into New Hampshire. Should the No. 19 team encounter a crash, mechanical failure or any other significant misfortune during even one Round of 12 race, they could be on the wrong side of the cut line in a hurry.
The good news for Briscoe? He’s looked like a championship-caliber driver over the second half of the season. He’ll need to keep driving like one to advance.
-Chase Elliott, No. 9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
The days of Elliott making the Championship 4 three years in a row (2020-22) now seem like decades away. If Elliott can’t find a win at the Charlotte Roval, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him within 10 points of either side of the cut line when the checkered flag flies in the Queen City.
Elliott can still be an elite driver, but the No. 9 team as a whole is not at the same level it was just three short years ago.
-Bubba Wallace, No. 23 Toyota, 23XI Racing
Wallace is in a similar position to Briscoe: a small gap (plus-1) to the cut line with a lot of momentum on his side. Kansas is Wallace’s shot to win his way into the Round of 8, but a history of middling results at both New Hampshire and the Roval suggests that Wallace’s likely Round of 12 outcome will be a dogfight to advance.
-Austin Cindric, No. 2 Ford, Team Penske
Cindric will have to shine at the Roval and secure at least top-15 finishes at both New Hampshire and Kansas to give himself a chance to advance. Reaching the Round of 12 is an accomplishment, but it’s time for the 2022 Daytona 500 champion to have a breakout playoff run and prove his worth to Roger Penske — something that could be accomplished by getting to the Round of 8 for the first time in his career.
-Joey Logano, No. 22 Ford, Team Penske
The defending champion isn’t in an optimal situation going into the Round of 12, but everyone in the garage knows that he can’t be counted out. Logano is a past winner at both Kansas and New Hampshire, and it might take another victory for Logano to keep his hopes of defending his championship alive.
-Ross Chastain, No. 1 Chevrolet, Trackhouse Racing
Chastain and the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team are still struggling to unload with speed on Saturday for practice and qualifying. If that trend continues in the Round of 12, it will be incredibly tough for Chastain to advance.
There is some hope for Chastain, however: he’s the defending winner at Kansas, and if presented with another opportunity to win at the 1.5-mile venue, he’ll do all he can to get back to victory lane.
-Tyler Reddick, No. 45 Toyota, 23XI Racing
Reddick is yet to win this season, and his subsequent lack of playoff points is beginning to seriously hurt him. Like with his 23XI teammate Wallace, Kansas is Reddick’s best chance to win his way to the Round of 8. Without that win, Reddick will be entrenched in a brutal fight for a transfer spot.
